Thus the two powers began to compete each other through the conflicts of foreign countries, in order to spread their own power more globaly; examples are Vietnamese War and Cuban Missile Crisis.
Needless to say, this is a challenging exercise due to the countless possible scenario, event permutations and outcomes, not least because China and Russia may also be sucked in, leading to a true world war.
While we focus on the latter below, first here are some big picture observations courtesy of Bloombergincluding an analysis of whether all out war can be avoided: Failing to hit them all would leave some 10 million people in Seoul, 38 million people in the Tokyo vicinity and tens of thousands of U.
Even if the U. Why might Kim go nuclear? Is regime change an option?
Moreover, if Kim somehow were targeted for removal, the ruling clique surrounding him would have to go as well -- making for a very long kill list. China, fearing both a refugee crisis and U. Does that mean all-out war is the best U. Yet any sign of an imminent strike -- such as a buildup of U.
China and Russia may also be sucked in. The most immediate reaction would likely be massive artillery fire on Seoul and its surroundings. North Korean artillery installations along the border can be activated faster than air or naval assets and larger ballistic missiles that can target South Korean, Japanese or American bases in the region with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Japan has begun offering advice to its citizens on what to do in the event a missile lands near them -- essentially try to get under ground -- and U. What options remain on the table? Stopping North Korea from obtaining a thermonuclear weapon, or more advanced solid-fuel missiles, is a goal worth pursuing, according to Lewis.
However unpalatable it may seem, that means offering rewards to entice North Korea back to the negotiating table.
Lewis suggested one reward could be to scale back U. Here are the salient thoughts from Capital Economics on this increasingly sensitive topic: If the North was able to set off a nuclear bomb in South Korea, the consequences would be even greater.
Many of the main targets in South Korea are located close to the border with the North. The experience of past military conflicts shows how big an impact wars can have on the economy. The most devastating military conflict since World War Two, however, has been the Korean Warwhich led to 1.
But there would also be indirect effects to consider. The main one is the disruption it would cause to global supply chains, which have been made more vulnerable by the introduction of just-in-time delivery systems.
Months after the Thai floods had receded in electronics and automotive factories across the world were still reporting shortages. The impact of a war in Korea would be much bigger. South Korea exports three times as many intermediate products as Thailand.
If South Korean production was badly damaged by a war there would be shortages across the world. The disruption would last for some time — it takes around two years to build a semi-conductor factory from scratch.
The impact of the war on the US economy would likely be significant. At its peak inthe US government was spending the equivalent of 4. Reconstruction after the war would be costly. Infrastructure, including electricity, water, buildings, roads and ports, would need to be rebuilt.
The US, a key ally of South Korea, would likely shoulder a large share of the costs. It has been the market's persistent refusal to even contemplate a worst-case scenario that perplexed Goldman, as we discussed this morning.
In a note from the bank's chief credit strategist, Charles Himmelberg said that "our sense is that investors have grown comfortable with the view that geopolitical tensions invariably result in diplomatic talks, in which case the right trade is to buy any dips. The result is a market psychology that is relatively resistant to the pricing of geopolitical risk.The comparative analysis focuses on four areas: the causes of the Korean War, American involvement in the war, Chinese involvement in the war, and the results of the war.
Analysis of the central story lines reveals that some consistent statements exist about certain events in the Korean War, but inconsistencies and conflicting views seem to dominate the history textbooks in these countries.
Mar 18, · A War Launched on American Terms How it would work: The United States would initiate a war to destroy the North Korean government outright, much as in Iraq in Analysis of The Film Gran Torino by Clint Eastwood Essay - The film, Gran Torino, by Clint Eastwood, follows the life of a Korean war veteran and his relationship with his Hmong neighbors as they battle to overcome the trials that they are faced with.
The most devastating military conflict since World War Two, however, has been the Korean War (), which led to m South Korean deaths, and saw the value of its GDP fall by over 80%.
South Korea accounts for around 2% of global economic output. Watch video · Why the Korean War didn’t end Although the war lasted from until an armistice in , the last two of those years were pretty much a deadlock. The . “A war would not end quickly after the defeat of North Korean forces,” Mark Fitzpatrick, the executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies office in Washington, told me.